Now it's over 12 years later. Broadband is ubiquitous. Digital audio is the default way that most people buy music, and I can't imaging a situation where I'd run out to a store to buy a CD. The point here is that the seed was available back in '96, but it took a decade (and Steve Jobs) for it to become completely mainstream.
So what other seeds are out there? It's a fascinating thing to ponder for many reasons, not the least of which is that if you were to bet on the right product you could make a lot of money. (See AAPL stock chart.)
Digital video is clearly in its infancy, but I think we're starting to see how it's all going to shake out. Short video will have a hard time finding a monetization model (who is going to watch a 15-second ad for a 30-second video?), but long-form video like 'Lost' seems to do pretty well with advertising. Pay-per-view will be a factor. Everything will be IP-based.
But what else? Here's my list of potential contenders:
-- Passive recommendations for products through social networks/services will change the way that goods and services are marketed.
-- Mobile applications with geographic information will probably change the way we purchase goods locally in the next 10 years.
-- In-car entertainment will change totally. AM/FM/Satellite will fall prey to 2-way IP-based services either built into the car or added aftermarket.
-- Inevitable taxation of online purchases will take away a lot of the incentive to buy big ticket items online. As a result, local commerce will need some kind of search engine. Local merchants will compete on price like never before.
-- Face and location recognition services will be able to scan any photo/video for recognizable features, but photos will need to be run through one or more very complex services (e.g. YouTube / Flickr / other) for this to work. Photo and video search will get really interesting.
-- The news business will be completely transformed, if not decimated. There has to be a way to win here, but it's going to require a much lower cost structure. Look for the next CNN to pop up in the next few years, and it won't be Drudge/HuffPo/CNN/Fox/MSNBC.
Other ideas? I'd love to hear them.