Sunday, January 18, 2009

Seeds of change -- what's next?

I remember "ripping" a CD track to AIFF format back in 1996.  The file was enormous, not to mention basically useless.  But it was the first time I remember listing to full-length digital audio.  Broadband was several years away at that point, and I remember thinking that digital audio was interesting but impractical.

Now it's over 12 years later.  Broadband is ubiquitous.  Digital audio is the default way that most people buy music, and I can't imaging a situation where I'd run out to a store to buy a CD. The point here is that the seed was available back in '96, but it took a decade (and Steve Jobs) for it to become completely mainstream.

So what other seeds are out there? It's a fascinating thing to ponder for many reasons, not the least of which is that if you were to bet on the right product you could make a lot of money.  (See AAPL stock chart.)

Digital video is clearly in its infancy, but I think we're starting to see how it's all going to shake out.  Short video will have a hard time finding a monetization model (who is going to watch a 15-second ad for a 30-second video?), but long-form video like 'Lost' seems to do pretty well with advertising.  Pay-per-view will be a factor.  Everything will be IP-based.

But what else?  Here's my list of potential contenders:

-- Passive recommendations for products through social networks/services will change the way that goods and services are marketed.
-- Mobile applications with geographic information will probably change the way we purchase goods locally in the next 10 years.
-- In-car entertainment will change totally.  AM/FM/Satellite will fall prey to 2-way IP-based services either built into the car or added aftermarket.
-- Inevitable taxation of online purchases will take away a lot of the incentive to buy big ticket items online.  As a result, local commerce will need some kind of search engine.  Local merchants will compete on price like never before.
-- Face and location recognition services will be able to scan any photo/video for recognizable features, but photos will need to be run through one or more very complex services (e.g. YouTube / Flickr / other) for this to work. Photo and video search will get really interesting.
-- The news business will be completely transformed, if not decimated.  There has to be a way to win here, but it's going to require a much lower cost structure.  Look for the next CNN to pop up in the next few years, and it won't be Drudge/HuffPo/CNN/Fox/MSNBC. 

Other ideas?  I'd love to hear them.



 

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